E-mails to stop Chechnya slaughter

Friends, (English)
  Please, I ask the Russian government to stop attacking Chechnya.  Surely now, 160 years after the Czar started invading Chechnya, it is time for Russia to finally withdraw with honour.
  The history of the 25-year conquest, Chechnya regaining independence, the Soviet re-conquest, the Soviet Union's cruelty, the Chechen welcome to the Nazi armies, the Stalinist deportation, Chechen terrorism, and the 1994-96 war, will gradually fade from memory, if Russia agrees to Chechen independence, and finances the orderly repatriation of ethnic Russians.
  To continue pretending that Chechens are Russians will breed more terrorism, and will not prevent the oil industry from being harmed.  I recommend that you be generous in offering national independence.
  If you do that, even if terrorism by religious extremists continues for a few years, eventually Russians and Chechens will be friends.
  For the sake of peace -- [Your NAME]

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CONSIDER sending the above message, and out of courtesy also use the following translations in the international language Esperanto and in French, to:

Mr Boris Yeltsin, President of the Russian Federation, on the Webpage http://www.gov.ru/mail_en.html

E-MAIL to ITAR-TASS Newsagency: dms@itar-tass.com

And also e-mail support@glas.apc.org , the Russian Embassy in Washington at webmaster@russianembassy.org , find Russian newspaper list http://sun3.lib.uci.edu/~slca/newspapers/int_new1/russia.htm , and find more addresses from http://www.valley.net/~transnat/

Amikoj, (Esperanto)

  Bonvolu, mi petas ke la Rusa registaro haltu ataki kontrauh Chechnio.  Certe nun, 160 jaroj post la Caro komencis invadi Chechnio, estas fojo ke Rusio finfine retiri kun honoro.

  La historio de la 25 jaroj de konkero, Chechnio re-akiranta de sendependo, la Sovjeta re-konkero, la krueleco de la Sovjeta Unuigo, la Chechnia bonvenigo al la Nazia armeoj, la ellandigo fare de Stalino, Chechna terurismo, kaj la 1994-96 milito, lauhgrade malaperighos malal memoro, se Rusio konsentos kun Chechna sendependo, kaj monumos la bonorda reen-patrujigajho de genta Rusoj.

  Dauhri shajniganta ke Chechnoj estas Rusoj naskigi pli de terurismo, kaj ne malhelpos la krud-petrola industrio malal estos difektata.  Mi rekomendas ke vi estu malavara prezenti nacia sendependeco.

  Se vi faros tiu, ech se terureco fare de religia ekstremuloj dauhros dum kelkaj jaroj, fine Rusoj kaj Chechnoj estos amikoj.

  Pro paco -- [Via NOMO]
En Français:


Des amis,  (En Français)

  S'il vous plaît, je demande le gouvernement Russe pour cesser d'attaquer Chechnya.  Sûrement, maintenant, 160 ans après que le Empereur a commencé à envahir Chechnya, il est temps pour la Russie de se retirer finalement avec l'honneur.

  L'histoire 25-années de la conquête, Chechnya regagnant l'indépendance, la reconquête Soviétique, la cruauté des syndicats Soviétiques, la bienvenue de Chechen aux armées de Nazi, la déportation de Stalinist, le terrorisme de Chechen, et 1994-96 la guerre, volonté s'effacent graduellement de la mémoire, si la Russie est d'accord sur l'indépendance de Chechen, et financent le rapatriement ordonné des Russes ethniques.

  Le pour continuer de feindre ce Chechens sont des Russes multipliera plus de terrorisme, et n'empêchera pas l'industrie pétrolière d'être nui.

  Je recommandent que vous soyez généreux en offrant l'indépendance nationale.

  Le si vous faites que, même si le terrorisme par des extrémistes religieux continue pendant des quelques années, par la suite Russes et Chechens sera des amis.

  Pour la paix -- [votre NOM]

FURTHER EFFORTS: E-MAIL, PHONE and FAX DETAILS (please advise any corrections or additions)
John Howard  Tel 02 6277 7700  Fax 02 6273 4100
Alexander Downer   A.Downer.MP@aph.gov.au  Tel 02 6277 7500  Fax 02 6273 4112
President Bill Clinton   president@whitehouse.gov
Secretary of State, Madeline Allbright   secretary@state.gov
U.S. Consulate in Perth   Tel (08) 9231 9400   Fax (08) 9231 9444
United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan   ecu@un.org   Fax 0015 1212 963 2155
The Australian letters   ausletr@newscorp.com.au
SMH letters   letters@smh.fairfax.com.au

History of Chechnya http://www.amina.com/hist/  includes the 25-year invasion by a Czar ending in 1864,  the invitation to welcome the Nazi troops as deliverers, the deportation under Stalin after World War II, and the Russian Republic's  previous attack of 1994-96. Peace Action, USA http://www.webcom.com/peaceact/
Germans opposed to Hitler tried to arrange peace during World War II http://www.culturewars.com/CultureWars/Archives/cw_recent/warcrime.html

  Chechnya, a small Moslem nation between the Black and Caspian Seas, is being mercilessly pounded by Russia with modern weapons (November 1999).  This re-conquest is occurring about a century and a quarter after the old Czarist empire conquered this region (1864), about 50 years after the population was deported, though later there was a partial restoration, and about a decade after the end of the Cold War.

  You can take part in an e-mail campaign to oppose this senseless war.  Protest at this grab for oil wealth, disguised as an attack on terrorists.  Russian leaders have apparently not yet learnt that taking a homeland off a people is a sure way to increase the number of potential terrorists.  If allowed to continue, this war will probably end up in crushing another free people, and dispersing disgruntled refugees around the world.  Below is an independent news service's report on the situation as they saw it on 12 November 1999:

Russia Unleashes Final Offensive on Chechnya

Summary: After weeks of demanding that they alone be allowed to determine the course of the 2 and a half month Chechen conflict, Russia's military leadership is suddenly indicating that it is willing to shorten the war. On its face, it appears that the military is capitulating to intense domestic pressure. But the military will in fact use the calls for negotiations as cover for an intensified offensive. Winter is setting in. The Russian Army is strained. And it is now poised to seize victory quickly, most likely leveling the capital, Grozny.

Analysis: Defence Minister Igor Sergeyev told the Interfax news agency on Nov. 11 that the Russian offensive in Chechnya might be over by the end of the year. Shortly after, Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov told reporters that the Russian government was eager to end the conflict quickly and "start the process for a political settlement."

Until now, the Russian military has very publicly insisted that it be allowed to run the war its way -- and complained bitterly at even the hint of interference from civilians. Both men's comments contrasted sharply with a Nov. 10 statement by Gen. Viktor Kazanstev that the conflict could continue for as long as three years -- unless the full might of the military was unleashed, in which case the war would take one week.

But the latest turn of events does not in fact point toward negotiations between Moscow and Grozny, as Western governments are increasingly demanding. Both Russia's military and civilian politicians have said that the only successful resolution is the reclamation of Chechnya. Even leftist political leader Grigory Yavlinsky, the harshest critic of the campaign, has demanded that the rebels lay down their weapons before any peace talks begin. As the rebels are unlikely to do this, there is little danger of this sort of political solution.

Global Intelligence Update
November 12, 1999

Even though Russian forces are enjoying a vast advantage over the rebels, internal and external pressures are mounting to bring a quick end to the conflict. The Russian military has Grozny in a state of siege, subject to air, rocket and artillery attacks. Novye Investia reports as many as 100,000 Russian troops are deployed in the breakaway republic, many occupying the Terek range above Grozny, and surrounding Chechnya's second largest city, Gudermes.

Some of this military advantage will disappear with the onset of winter. Some of Russia's front-line aircraft -- such as the Su-25 and Su-24 warplanes, and the MI-25 attack helicopters -- are not well-suited for winter sorties. In addition, a long, cold winter siege is both expensive for the army and hard on personnel. These concerns argue for pushing the military campaign forward, and soon.

Politically, the war's popularity is waning in Russia and it is increasingly time to find and claim victory. The chief sponsor of the war, Prime Minister Putin, has been buoyed by the conflict, which remains relatively casualty-free. Putin's popularity among voters has reached a record level. The private Public Opinion Foundation reports 29 percent of voters intend to vote for Putin in the presidential election, Agence France Press reported on Nov. 3.

Putin does not want to see the reputation of his war tarnished.

Yet on the cusp of Duma elections, public opinion may be turning. Though political polling in Russia is often unreliable, only a third of Russians surveyed in a recent poll said that they believed their forces would win the conflict. In another poll, two-thirds of Russians said that they were concerned or "ashamed" about the conflict, the London Guardian reported Nov. 11. Civilian politicians in Moscow are also growing squeamish about Western calls for negotiations with the rebels. Alarmed at civilian deaths and the flow of refugees, the European Union is increasing pressure on Russia to halt.

The Europeans in turn are pressuring the United States to confront Russia.  State Department spokesman James Rubin accused Russia on Nov. 10 of violating the Geneva conventions. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) is reportedly planning to force the issue with Russia at an upcoming summit in Istanbul, Turkey on Nov. 17. More than mere criticism, politicians in Moscow are worried about the eventual impact on Western investment and loans.

But there is no way that the Russian military will let politicians snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

In advance of any kind of political settlement, the military is likely to push forward -- decisively -- to secure its gains and grab as much of Chechnya as possible. The military is eager to claim the victory it was denied in 1996 when one of their own, Gen. Alexander Lebed, arrived for truce negotiations; the generals are not about to let politics interfere in Grozny this time. Playing the leading role in Russia's foreign policy, the military-security apparatus is equally disinterested in how this all plays in the West.

The military is now likely to break out of its combination of siege and air strikes to unleash a renewed offensive against three targets: the cities of Gudermes, Grozny and Bamut. The second-largest city in Chechnya, Gudermes is surrounded and troops are reportedly set to occupy the city. Tanks are now within range of Grozny, according to the military. And 200 tanks are reported in the area of Bamut. Apparently fearing a new offensive, President Aslan Maskhadov, has intensified calls for talks.

From there, Russian forces could easily push remaining rebels into the southern mountains, isolating them in the winter and picking them off as opportunities allow. This would also easily set the stage for eventual Russian probing -- if necessary -- along the Georgian border. Instead of peace, renewed war is in the offing.  -- © 1999, Stratfor, Inc.

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See also "Russia’s Silent Coup Becomes Public" -- the military possibly took over before 3 Nov '99, leaving Yeltsin with only the appearance of being in power.  See: http://www.stratfor.com/cis/commentary/c9911061515.htm   Added 3 Jan 2000 -- Yeltsin resigned, handing power to Putin on 31 December 1999  

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http://www.stratfor.com/services/giu/subscribe.asp or send your name, organization, position, mailing address, phone number, and e-mail address to alert@stratfor.com

A decade after the Cold War, Russia is on the brink of dramatic change. In this four-part series, Stratfor.com forecasts economic and political reversals in the coming year. http://www.stratfor.com/CIS/countries/Russia/russia2000/russia2000.htm
New Today - Water: The Key to Middle East Peace? http://www.stratfor.com/MEAF/specialreports/special19.htm

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Sri Lankan Battle Turns North http://www.stratfor.com/asia/commentary/m9911112356.htm

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